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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Real_estate_economicsCaracterísticas do mercado imobiliário, fundamental saber isso p/ entender que maluquice estamos vivendo...
Durability - Real estate is durable. A building can last for decades or even centuries, and the land underneath it is practically indestructible. Because of this, real estate markets are modeled as a stock/flow market. About 98% of supply consists of the stock of existing houses, while about 2% consists of the flow of new development. The stock of real estate supply in any period is determined by the existing stock in the previous period, the rate of deterioration of the existing stock, the rate of renovation of the existing stock, and the flow of new development in the current period. The effect of real estate market adjustments tend to be mitigated by the relatively large stock of existing buildings.
Heterogeneous - Every piece of real estate is unique, in terms of its location, in terms of the building, and in terms of its financing. This makes pricing difficult, increases search costs, creates information asymmetry and greatly restricts substitutability. To get around this problem, economists (beginning with Muth (1960)) define supply in terms of service units, that is, any physical unit can be deconstructed into the services that it provides. Olsen (1969) describes these units of housing services as an unobservable theoretical construct. Housing stock depreciates making it qualitatively different from a new building. The market equilibrating process operates across multiple quality levels. Further, the real estate market is typically divided into residential, commercial, and industrial segments. It can also be further divided into subcategories like recreational, income generating, area, historical/protected, etc.
Durability - Real estate is durable. A building can last for decades or even centuries, and the land underneath it is practically indestructible. Because of this, real estate markets are modeled as a stock/flow market. About 98% of supply consists of the stock of existing houses, while about 2% consists of the flow of new development. The stock of real estate supply in any period is determined by the existing stock in the previous period, the rate of deterioration of the existing stock, the rate of renovation of the existing stock, and the flow of new development in the current period. The effect of real estate market adjustments tend to be mitigated by the relatively large stock of existing buildings.
Heterogeneous - Every piece of real estate is unique, in terms of its location, in terms of the building, and in terms of its financing. This makes pricing difficult, increases search costs, creates information asymmetry and greatly restricts substitutability. To get around this problem, economists (beginning with Muth (1960)) define supply in terms of service units, that is, any physical unit can be deconstructed into the services that it provides. Olsen (1969) describes these units of housing services as an unobservable theoretical construct. Housing stock depreciates making it qualitatively different from a new building. The market equilibrating process operates across multiple quality levels. Further, the real estate market is typically divided into residential, commercial, and industrial segments. It can also be further divided into subcategories like recreational, income generating, area, historical/protected, etc.
High Transaction costs - Buying and/or moving into a home costs much more than most types of transactions. These costs include search costs, real estate fees, moving costs, legal fees, land transfer taxes, and deed registration fees. Transaction costs for the seller typically range between 1.5 - 6% of the purchase price. In some countries in Continental Europe, transaction costs for both buyer and seller can range between 15 - 20%.
Long time delays - The market adjustment process is subject to time delays due to the length of time it takes to finance, design, and construct new supply, and also due to the relatively slow rate of change of demand. Because of these lags there is a great potential for disequilibrium in the short run. Adjustment mechanisms tend to be slow, relative to more fluid markets.
Both an investment good and a consumption good - Real estate can be purchased with the expectation of attaining a return (an investment good), or with the intention of using it (a consumption good), or both. These functions can be separated (with market participants concentrating on one or the other function) or can be combined (in the case of the person that lives in a house that they own). This dual nature of the good means that it is not uncommon for people to over-invest in real estate, that is, to invest more money in an asset than it is worth on the open market.
Immobility - Real estate is locationally immobile (save for mobile homes, but the land underneath them is still immobile). Consumers come to the good rather than the good going to the consumer. Because of this, there can be no physical market-place. This spatial fixity means that market adjustment must occur by people moving to dwelling units, rather than the movement of the goods. For example, if tastes change and more people demand suburban houses, people must find housing in the suburbs, because it is impossible to bring their existing house and lot to the suburb (even a mobile home owner, who could move the house, must still find a new lot). Spatial fixity combined with the close proximity of housing units in urban areas suggest the potential for externalities inherent in a given location.
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10 comentários:
"About 98% of supply consists of the stock of existing houses, while about 2% consists of the flow of new development"
Isso o pessoal ignora COMPLETAMENTE e acha q qdo forem entregues esses montes de imoveis novos, que são comprados "todos" por especuladores, isso causará uma MEGA oferta que vai IMPLODIR o preço dos imóveis... Será mesmo?
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Conforme postado pelo jose lá no bolha:
"so pra ilustrar:
No US:
existing homes sales = 5,1 milhoes de casas anualisado http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2011/04/rise_march
new home sales = 300 mil
http://www.census.gov/const/newressales.pdf
o que impacta PIB eh casas novas (venda de cimento, vergalhao, etc),
mas o que MANDA no mercado eh o mercado de casas usadas"
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"High Transaction costs"
Altos custos transacionais (altos não, altíssimos)...
No BR, p/ compra (todos por conta do comprador):
- Escritura (menos de 1k)
- RGI (menos de 1k)
- ITBI (2%)
Em muitos lugares, como vários bairros do Rio, onde os imoveis são foreiros, paga-se ainda 2,5% na transmissão do bem... Dose...
Em Petropolis tb existe essa "taxa" e ela vai p/ a familia Imperial.
A comissão do corretor (geralmente 5%, mas tem lugares q é maior) é o vendedor q paga, mas em épocas aquecidas do mercado, é muito mais fácil botar no preço antes de anunciar...
Na venda, no caso de ter lucro, paga IR de 15%, apesar q tem aquela famosa isenção se comprar outro imóvel em 180 dias.
Então, especular c/ imoveis é uma coisa "um pouco" mais complicada do q muitos pensam.
Alguém concorda/discorda/acrescenta algo?
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Obs.: unknown = Andre Ok?
Abs
isso ai...
eh muito custo, se for pra comprar e vender no curto prazo so se subir MUITO...
eh furada
André,
Realmente,não dá pra ignorar a diferença entre o tamanho mercado de novos e de usados. Entretanto, não parece que uma alta tão grande aconteceria se não fosse puxada pelos preços imóveis novos. Um aumento nos preços deveria ser acompanhado por uma redução da demanda. Parece que é o que está acontecendo agora, mas não é meio tardio?
Anonimo,
não temos ainda os dados de vendas de novos x usados no BR.
Porem, é perfeitamente possível q a alta tenha sido puxada pelos usados, se seguirmos a proporção dos EUA (95%-5%)
Suponhamos q em um ano sejam postos à venda 1000 imóveis, sendo 50 novos e 950 usados. Se temos 1000 compradores o preço se mantém.
Agora, se esse numero de compradores aumenta pra 10000 de repente (devido à crédito) não tem como o preço não subir. Mesmo q os novos tripliquem de qtde não chega nem perto de dar conta da demanda.
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IR sobre lucro na venda de imóvel:
"deverá pagar o imposto, que é de 15% sobre o lucro resultante da venda"
http://www.insidernews.com.br/geral/como-calcular-o-imposto-de-renda-sobre-lucro-imobiliario-venda-de-imovel-casa-apartamento
Abs
Trazendo do bolha (comentários meus)
Cálculo do ITBI (no Rio):
Não importa o preço do RGI, a prefeitura tem uma tabela propria de ITBI, q funciona assim, se o valor declarado for menor vale o da prefeitura, se for maior vale o declarado…
Se o ap tem o valor de mercado anunciado de 400k, pode ter certeza q a prefeitura tem na tabela 400k… Se vc declarar 300k, vai pagar ITBI de 2% de 400k de qq jeito.
Mas se declarar 500k vale o q tu declarou. Parece brincadeira, mas é verdade.
Outra: segundo info de que trabalha em cartorio, essa tabela costumava ser atualizada 1 vez por ano, agora é 3 ou 4 vezes/ano p/ acompanhar o mercado…
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Segundo pessoas q compraram recentemente, é assim mesmo.
Mas o pessoal “mente” na escritura/RGI, por outro motivo: sonegar IR. Só vale em compra à vista, pois se for financiado, a Caixa faz avaliação e obriga a botar o preço real de mercado.
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www2.rio.rj.gov.br/smf/pagsmf/conteudo.cfm?template=subitem&idmenu=5&iditem=31&procura=ITBI
Clica lá em:
Simulação de Valor / Solicitação de Guia
Coloque o num de inscr no IPTU do seu imóvel e testa c/ valor menor e maior do q o da tabela da prefeitura. Vc vai ver q é o maior entre esses dois q serve de base p/ o cálculo do ITBI, logo, não adianta nada jogar pra baixo, conforme eu disse.
Isso vale p/ o Rio, outras cidades não sei.
Obs.: o valor já mudou de novo (pra cima, claro).
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Obs: duvido q quando o mercado cair a Prefeitura vá ter essa pressa toda p/ atualizar a tabela...
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