Cartagena, o maior exagero da (desconhecida) bolha imobiliária colombiana

Intrigado com o gráfico da postagem anterior resolvi correr atrás desse tal crash imobiliário da Colômbia.

E então achei este interessante artigo (de nov/2009) sobre a cidade de Cartagena, a "Riviera" colombiana:

Cartagena, the world's biggest real estate bubble

Passagens interessantes:
"Of all the real estate bubbles I have studied in the world, this one could be the biggest. And when it pops, there is very little visibility as to where the floor is. Cartagena could see price declines in excess of 50% in its "new Miami" - Boca Grande, and far greater in the old city of El Centro where prices have risen beyond the most insane logic. The concept of return on investment or cap-rates have been thrown out the window and mania has taken on new meaning - all in a city where unemployment is far higher than most parts of Colombia and, as a resort area, offers little beauty in its beaches. To say the market is artificial is an understatement."


Olha q bizarro:
"Buildings went up so fast and with such little oversight that at one point the tallest in all Colombia, and first steel structure on the sandy terra of Boca Grande, had all of its 50 floors fully erected prior to suddenly tilting over several degrees like a giant leaning tower of Pisa and authorities were forced to dismantle it to the ground. With barely any foundation or footings it nearly collapsed on the city much like present prices will soon enough."


Um lugar-comum em discussões de bolha no BR:
"Much like Panama City, most of the high rise condos have an erie darkness to them a night. Upon a recent visit to one building I was informed that all are sold, but many un-occupied."


E o mais interessante de todos:
"The phenomenon of rising prices and declining sales is a classic sign of a market in transition"


Abs

Crashs de imóveis pelo mundo - Percentual e duração

Seguindo um link tirado lá do "bolha":
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-qQCbxx5E3jw/Te2cMdxEWlI/AAAAAAAAAGg/HIhGyZ21sTc/s1600/housing-price-declines.png

Achei o livro de onde foi tirada a imagem no Google Books (pág 227), o livro se chama This time is different: eight centuries of financial folly, parece ser interessante...

Curioso é q gráfico tem crashs que eu nunca tinha ouvido falar, como por ex. Colombia em 1998 (nada menos de 50% em coisa de 6 anos).

E tb não tem nenhuma queda de 40% em 1 ano e meio, que seria a "vontade do povo" por aqui (vide a enquete).

Update: Pra quem não percebeu (como eu), a queda é em termos reais, e não nominais.

Abs