Seguindo a sugestão do leitor Frank neste post anterior, estou "promovendo" um ótimo comentário do Iconoclastas, com um relatório do Safra:
"Facts & Insights #3: Newly-built Homes Are Shrinking for the Sake of Affordability
Fact: There has been a prominent downsizing in new homes launched by Brazilian homebuilders.
When revisiting EMBRAESP’s numbers for the past five years, we found a piece of data that officially endorsed what anecdotal evidence has indicated: the average size of homes launched by homebuilders in São Paulo (in both the city and metro area) is shrinking every year.
Although our investigation encompassed just the data for São Paulo, as this is the only reliable source of statistics available, we believe this trend can be spanned elsewhere in the country (MCMV program launchings aside).
Although on a price/square meter ratio, prices have skyrocketed in recent years, with the average unit launched in the city of SP in 7M11 priced at R$6,200/sqm vs. R$3,458 in 2006, the average price of launched units has risen at a much slower pace, and stood at R$473,000 (vs. R$392,000 in 2006). The caveat is that consumers are paying roughly the same price today (in real terms) for a house that is 32% smaller than what this amount could purchase in 2006 (76 vs. 113 square meters).
Conclusion: In our conversations with investors, the issue of rising home prices (and how sustainable this is) comes up more often than not. But most of the time, investors are looking at the price per square meter and
questioning how this new price reality can fit in the pockets of the average middle-class Brazilians whose financial condition, though better than 5-6 years ago, has not followed the pace with rising prices. We believe the answer to the affordability equation lies in three pillars:
(i) Credit: longer and cheaper – in the past five years, there has been a reduction in interest rates on mortgages and an extension in tenors to 30 years, bringing down the monthly installments.
(ii) Location: in the main cities, new homes have been increasingly launched farther from major neighborhoods, and homebuilders tend to rename previously-disliked areas to make them more attractive.
(iii) Size: new homes are shrinking every year, so that the same average-priced home is now 35% smaller than it was five years ago.
By selling smaller, farther-away homes with 30-year installment plans, homebuilders have managed to couple with the rising costs of land and labor while keeping profitability. At the same time, the first home has become affordable to an increasing number of Brazilian families. In a country with such a pent-up demand for homes as Brazil, it comes as no surprise that most people’s new homes are the ones that fit their budgets, not
necessarily the one that the average family would desire in terms of size and location. However, the downward trend in unit size has a limit – as shown by the relative stability seen in 7M11 vs. 2010 –, and it will be
harder for builders to push even smaller homes for customers from now on.
Just for the curious readers, the average new house size in Australia increased by 51% in the past 25 years, to 245.3 square meters¹; in the US, the average new home built today has 251 sqm, up by 93% in relation to the
past four decades². According to a survey held by the Commission for Architecture and the Built Environment³, newly-built homes in the UK were the smallest in Europe as of 2009, at just 76 square meters (vs. 113 in
France and 137 in Denmark). It is interesting to bear these figures in mind when comparing price-to-income ratios for different countries."
Sobre o ponto de ir afastando os lançamentos p/ continuar "cabendo" no bolso do consumidor:
Campo Grande supera Jpa e Barra em número de lançamentos em 2009.